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Cover Image of Everything is predictable
  • Non-fiction
  • 2024
  • First One Signal Publishers/Atria Books hardcover edition.

Everything is predictable

how Bayesian statistics explain our world

Tom Chivers

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"At its simplest, Bayes's theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes's theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence? Fusing biography, razor-sharp science writing, and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes's theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences."--

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Full Record Details Table

Title Statement Everything is predictable: how Bayesian statistics explain our world / Tom Chivers.
Author Chivers, Tom
Publication New York: One Signal Publishers/Atria,2024.
Edition First One Signal Publishers/Atria Books hardcover edition.
Extent of Item 371 pages
ISBN 9781668052600 (hardcover)
Other Number pr07478250
Contents Introduction : a theory of not quite everything --From the Book of Common Prayer to the full Monte Carlo --Bayes in science --Bayesian decision theory --Bayes in the world --The Bayesian brain --Bayesian life --Acknowledgments --Notes --Index.
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references and index.
Summary "At its simplest, Bayes's theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes's theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence? Fusing biography, razor-sharp science writing, and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes's theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences."--
Subjects & Genres
By Topic Bayesian statistical decision theory
Forecasting
Mathematical statistics
Probabilities
Statistical decision
By Genre Biographies
Statistics
Personal narratives
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